Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 16.568134 20.063157 23.944218 28.549734 33.840962 39.704622 46.667982
2025-06-01 11.181902 15.615236 21.090155 28.242242 37.223266 48.007547 61.804508
2025-06-08 7.909790 12.437612 18.531881 27.109042 38.617328 53.256858 72.982892
2025-06-15 6.383366 11.079484 17.858664 27.975205 42.251825 61.207076 87.727234
2025-06-22 4.858558 9.325288 16.239357 27.158358 43.318044 65.636631 97.943269
2025-06-29 4.110236 8.595091 15.953759 28.122196 46.824296 73.460544 113.037030
2025-07-06 3.054662 7.081480 14.158053 26.494402 46.275804 75.420684 119.971560
2025-07-13 2.644593 6.643607 14.049338 27.477076 49.685202 83.211935 135.503216
2025-07-20 2.277681 6.199344 13.844438 28.239051 52.751874 90.607010 150.755880
2025-07-27 2.010174 5.897452 13.841895 29.317705 56.364227 98.972108 167.774943
2025-08-03 1.747355 5.539075 13.668375 30.049761 59.417075 106.583962 183.942040
2025-08-10 1.412058 4.913511 12.857150 29.504046 60.225666 110.653844 194.809178
2025-08-17 1.073377 4.199005 11.798945 28.490308 60.362771 114.018818 205.365054
2025-08-24 0.846907 3.713118 11.155373 28.224325 61.842081 119.730796 220.040450
2025-08-31 0.624252 3.134103 10.164295 27.093620 61.595232 122.488065 230.034808
2025-09-07 0.534537 2.959413 10.122816 27.959483 65.158082 131.898908 251.270316
2025-09-14 0.399828 2.545007 9.367403 27.143010 65.373294 135.470568 262.934840
2025-09-21 0.346060 2.429244 9.396261 28.106413 69.169647 145.532885 285.882237
2025-09-28 0.237462 1.989385 8.386998 26.479357 67.561581 145.777179 292.087793
2025-10-05 0.206179 1.911387 8.448949 27.461584 71.424038 156.167795 316.160701
2025-10-12 0.175282 1.813534 8.425798 28.223215 74.862800 165.913079 339.433013
2025-10-19 0.153586 1.755543 8.522130 29.301385 79.048219 177.223631 365.824683
2025-10-26 0.130088 1.665934 8.489523 30.033115 82.517582 187.312905 390.364987